the Canadian pendulum was due to swing back to the Cons

Sure, for the opposition leader it’s a matter of adding or removing momentum to the pendulum swing. He definitely added a lot of momentum, to the point that the Liberals had to throw the PM and its climate policy under the bus to get one more term. That’s a hell of an effective opposition leader.

Any influence gained was because it was “their turn”, not Poilievre’s leadership.

I’m not saying that he’s a genius or anything, but making good use of your “turn” is not an easy task. He has demonstrated that he’s good at it, to the point of landslide victory projections 6 months ago.

would have won if it wasn’t for Trump slapping Canada in the face

And that’s exactly why it’s going to be easy to brush off his loss. Sure, he’ll face criticism on his failure to pivot the party messaging post-Trudeau, but that was a nearly impossible situation. Would any other CPC MP have done a better job of riling up the conservatives against the Liberals without in the end get blindsided by anti-republican sentiments? Jamil Jivani? I don’t see any reason to believe the CPC will have a better shot with someone else.

If they do end up booting Poilievre out of the leader seat, it will be because the CPC is a bucket of selfish snakes and lizards vying for power. It is possible. Surely someone is salivating at this opportunity. I just find it unlikely, because the vast majority of MPs are satisfied with his work and will simply bide their time, they’ll be better prepared in two years.

Indeed. We dodged the bullet but we’re still sliding downhill. The time for conservatives is coming, unfortunately. I just hope that the next time the pendulum swings back, we get some electoral reform done and more modern and sturdy guardrails to soften the next round.

Still, I daydream myself into hope and into action. No one knows what’s coming long term, so I imagine progress. That’s the only way I can function instead of growing apathetic out of despair. Next cycle I’ll be here once more, campaigning ABC.

American liberals played the same game in 2020. They got four years of Biden. Everyone hated it. And then they sent Trump back up into office like '17-'21 never happened.

Carney has a few advantages over Biden: he is actually liked by true Liberals (so far), he’s not senile and landed the job just because he had decades in the party (on the contrary, he has that outsider business-man status that the middle class loves), and he has a nationalist movement timed nicely for him.

That said, it’s still true that…

What happens when the black hole of an American recession sucks Canada down along with it in another few years?

if this tariff bullshit intensifies, Canada will face a recession under Carney and the country will turn to a conservative government - one that will open the doors for American imperialism, bails out corporations, and cuts services that would save lives of the people that will end up in the streets after losing their jobs. I find it very unlikely that this minority liberal government would survive a significant economic downturn, regardless of who would be in charge of it.

PP says he is staying on as party leader but his party would be incredibly foolish to keep him. His campaign cost them a historical election victory and the dude can’t even get elected in his own riding.

You’re not thinking like a Conservative MP. Yess PP lost the run for PM and humiliatingly lost his riding, but overall the party grew in influence and in number of seats tremendously under his leadership. We’re now closer to a two party system, and Conservatives benefit from this tremendously. CPC ate the PPC. I’m 100% sure that they’re chucking this loss to bad luck with Trump timing, they had to reinvent themselves in 3 months. With 2 years of planning (and bootlicking down south), they’ll be better prepared and Poilievre is their winning strategy. In this cycle, the CPC successfully FPTP’ed the NDP and the Greens out of existence. They’re well positioned to a minority govt with Bloc in a few years.

Nah, the Liberals deserve the bigger credit. I don’t necessarily think they could have won without Trump shitting the fan for Conservatives but their actions created the necessary conditions for the win: 1) Drop Trudeau; 2) Don’t pick Freeland, pick a white middle age man from the finance industry; 3) Get rid of the consumer carbon pricing; 4) Focus on the economy instead of progressive values. Without any of these, it would have been a CPC win even with Poilievre wearing a MAGA hat.

The latter. This ghoul is not going away.

seek help

Meh, I wouldn’t brush aside this so easily. You don’t have to be a full blown bigot to be affected by bias. Most people have unconscious bias that tilt their opinion one way or another. A white woman would face extra barriers… so you can safely bet a guy from the ethnicity that has some people literally saying that we have “allowed in too much of” will face a hasher hill to climb. Though I also agree that this isn’t the main reason the NDP didn’t go well, it’s probably a minor contributing factor.

How many times have I heard a phrase containing “these brown people” out loud in the last year? Not many. But not zero. And if I could also hear peoples subconscious thoughts, it would probably have been way more than we’d like to admit.

Isn’t it a no brainer for the NDP to make electoral reform a deal breaking issue?

No, because the NDP is more of a hostage to the current result than the Liberals. If another election happens in the short term, it’s more likely that the ridings they had NDP/Liberals splits will tilt towards Liberals than the opposite.

The NDP will have to be very very acquiescent in their “deal breaking issues” because of their fragile position.

And on the other hand, the Liberals are benefiting from FPTP, so that sailed ship is now approaching the horizon.

electoral reform seems like an acceptable deal from their end too, right?

I find it very unlikely. In practice, a two party system is good for them because they’re one of the two parties.

Could be a joint

Conservatives have more seats now so that’s definitely not the lesson they’re learning. Probably this just means that they need to pick a rural district to run their party leader

I am so relieved, time to spend my tax returns on celebrating

I just think that it’s unfair to bash the entire province for the views of a minority that’s so small that they make Quebecan separatism feel like they’re only an election away from a super majority.

I think the intent here is not to bash anyone, let alone the collective on its entirety. You can read “Alberta is a threat to Canadian unity” more as “Alberta’s Government is a threat to Canadian unity”. And if next election cycle the people of Alberta decides to re-elect Danielle Smith, then you’ll have your awaited answer on whether albertans themselves, as a collective, are also a threat to Canadian unity.

Curious who you think will win in your gut?

I’m feeling it’s Carney but I don’t feel confident at all. Might be wishful thinking. Polling hasn’t been reliable enough for me to be at peace.

to think because of the odiousness of our president, liberals may take it? Do you think that’s likely?

Trump being disgusting seems to have nudged some in favor of Liberals, but it’s also not the major reason imho. The Liberal strategy of getting rid of Trudeau and the consumer carbon pricing worked, because Conservatives spent the last 5 years yammering non-stop about these two things as their promise. Conservatives were literally calling it a “carbon tax election”. Scrambling to find a new platform, Conservatives started to pivot into generic bullshit like “Canada First”, and that’s where they ended up likening themselves to Trump even more.

Pretty much the only thing Conservatives have going for them now is chanting that Liberals have been in power for too long and “we need change”. But their platform without ax-the-tax and fuck-trudeau was reduced to the same basic shit as ever: tough on crime, cheap gas, and transphobia.

It seems like only 20% of Alberta actually wants succession

I get your point but Alberta’s government, chosen by Albertans, are putting unity at stake. So while I agree that public support isn’t favourable to this ones specific decision, the people in power are testing the waters and this also matters a lot, so the article isn’t suddenly invalidated just because it’s the wishes of a minority. It can still be dangerous.

These people see themselves as destined to be upper class so they imagine their future as covered by good insurance plus investments that would easily absorb any emergency. So they vote for the interests of the rich, because in their fantasy that’s also their long term best interests.

Tragically, this lack of class consciousness makes them vote for narrowing the path of social mobility that they’re counting on.

I do, because I’m from Brazil and lots of my friends worked for Ambev, so they revere this man as a living god just like the average Amazon manager does for Jeff Bezos.

This obsession? Which obsession?

ABC Vancouver?

Nice try