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  • adarzatoWikipedia@lemmy.worldMonty Hall problem
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    3 hours ago

    123

    each door has a 1/3rd chance of the car. you choose 1.

    there’s a 1/3rd chance you’re right (door 1 wins), a 2/3rd chance you’re wrong (door 2 or 3 wins)

    host opens door number 3. reveals a goat.

    123
    –g

    the chances of doors 2 or 3 combined having the car (and thus, you being wrong) has not changed. it’s still 2/3rds.

    just because one of those two doors has been revealed does not alter that chance.

    your chance to win via door 1 is also unchanged. still 1/3rd.

    now the dilemma. you are given opportunity to switch.

    do you keep your 1/3rd chance or do you switch and inherit that 2/3rd chance?